Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 11.465680 13.142175 14.951025 17.044323 19.396516 21.954356 24.942705
2025-05-04 8.860449 11.095245 13.697031 16.935987 20.845118 25.394985 31.074702
2025-05-11 7.434468 9.860135 12.825946 16.693411 21.574886 27.500382 35.202911
2025-05-18 6.453101 9.011196 12.278537 16.717268 22.543332 29.877408 39.747887
2025-05-25 5.771884 8.428928 11.953104 16.911574 23.639585 32.372427 44.471616
2025-06-01 5.144513 7.833699 11.527800 16.896207 24.405305 34.427074 48.680950
2025-06-08 4.578371 7.252221 11.048170 16.733401 24.912554 36.111499 52.426050
2025-06-15 4.185944 6.876152 10.812390 16.871902 25.814385 38.343667 56.992112
2025-06-22 3.939632 6.690589 10.828032 17.357776 27.217816 41.320601 62.716518
2025-06-29 3.558189 6.253271 10.422564 17.171462 27.601911 42.833801 66.390501
2025-07-06 3.081037 5.612532 9.645661 16.348037 26.957707 42.785158 67.747435
2025-07-13 2.921283 5.481745 9.661018 16.757363 28.211963 45.597698 73.454921
2025-07-20 2.748248 5.317298 9.616255 17.078242 29.364520 48.341888 79.238946
2025-07-27 2.513505 5.021681 9.329283 16.979188 29.835996 50.055617 83.518732
2025-08-03 2.280139 4.703607 8.974595 16.732798 30.037358 51.333440 87.145512
2025-08-10 2.113831 4.493324 8.789114 16.757842 30.680670 53.331092 91.982723
2025-08-17 1.988366 4.348294 8.706655 16.952170 31.611682 55.823423 97.704331
2025-08-24 1.844877 4.153276 8.516263 16.936910 32.173293 57.722828 102.523675
2025-08-31 1.695481 3.931034 8.256365 16.773704 32.458936 59.162873 106.626724
2025-09-07 1.596560 3.803178 8.164908 16.912521 33.281306 61.533424 112.365924
2025-09-14 1.545151 3.771183 8.256373 17.399434 34.752607 65.069046 120.206672
2025-09-21 1.423853 3.574932 8.006640 17.212722 34.973571 66.437455 124.372936
2025-09-28 1.249147 3.240807 7.450736 16.387519 33.953993 65.570916 124.609730